S0321-50750000617-4-1

Article

Published

Issue 8

3-7

Characterizing the internal situation in Iran, the author notes that the regime of «Shiite democracy» has proved that it can achieve positive economic results. However, the economic system itself, 70% of which is public sector, and which largely rests on huge subsidies, is becoming more and more corrupt and less effective. Bearing in mind acceleration of changes in the world, growing and often unpredictable impact of information technologies, one can not assert with full confidence that the regime is strong and stable. But the Iranian ruling elite will not permit a «Gorbachev’s scenario».As far as the international cooperation is concerned, the key factor determining the relationship between Tehran and the outside world, is the Iranian nuclear program. Unfortunately, the current situation is characterized by extreme nervousness and uncertainty. It is difficult to say what will prevail: the emotional and irrational egoistic interests of leaders - the US, Iran and Israel, or balanced, responsible approach to the fate of the region and of the entire world, of the global interests of the international community, i.e. an approach which would eliminate a danger of war.A.Vasiliev believes that there is nevertheless an objective possibility of cooperation between Iran and the U.S. and even Israel, both in economy and in providing peace, security and stability in the region.

01.08.2012

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