- PII
- S042473880006892-0-
- DOI
- 10.31857/S042473880006892-0
- Publication type
- Article
- Status
- Published
- Authors
- Volume/ Edition
- Volume 56 / Issue 2
- Pages
- 40-51
- Abstract
The paper describes the results of constructing a mathematical model of the system dynamics of the Russian food market (for example, meat and meat products) in the context of the ongoing processes of import substitution. Food markets, like agriculture, are complex, stochastic systems with a high degree of randomness and dynamic unpredictability. Adequate management of the processes taking place in these markets requires systematic understanding using mathematical methods and models. The paper reviews typical classes of models describing the behavior of agri-food markets. It is shown that in the conditions of modern Russia, the factors of external and internal environment put us before the need to build system-dynamic models that allow us to analyze and manage these highly volatile systems, far from equilibrium States. The authors developed a model of markets of meat and meat products SAFMD (simulation of agri-food market dynamics) differs significantly from previously known productions that takes into account the effects of key factors: domestic production in the context of export-import, real income, proportion of household income for a given food group, a reorientation of consumer preferences, etc. As a result of computational experiments on the model in The AnyLogic environment, consumer prices for meat products (beef, pork, poultry) were obtained: in retrospect (2001-2017) and forecast (2018-2023). The calculated forecasts for 2018-2019 for the beef, pork and poultry markets are very close to the currently known statistical data, which indicates the adequacy of the model. The discrepancy between the calculated model and the actual prices is explained, according to the authors, by various distorting factors, the degree of influence of which is especially great in the agri-food sector. Such imbalances can be explained by the crisis phenomena of 204-2015, measures of state support of agriculture related to the "yellow basket", as well as changes in consumer behavior in these markets. The last institutional factor requires special research.
- Keywords
- food markets, import substitution processes, system dynamics models, consumer price forecasts, optimal market management, AnyLogic.
- Date of publication
- 11.06.2020
- Year of publication
- 2020
- Number of purchasers
- 35
- Views
- 1906
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